🔗 Share this article

It was two months in the past that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager berated him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, as the club failed to win in six, doubts remained if Rogers' form were an indicator or the source for Villa's broader struggles.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

This weekend, however, the sideline response proved to be decidedly more positive. After the England international drilled in his second strike to reinstate his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician discarded his coat, opened his arms and roared. The Birmingham club continued to a 10th successive win and despite not winning their initial half-dozen matches, now sit a mere three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Legitimate Challengers?

This is an exceptionally difficult proposition to resolve. Past precedent, a general sense of this institution, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they've rarely been completely commanding in many games, even as the wins have stacked up.

Per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the team had an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a side who have just won ten consecutive victories, the Villans appear strangely fragile – but right now the fine lines are going in their favour.

The Winning Formula

Their recent policy seems to be to exchange chances with an opponent and wait for their talisman to bail them out with a couple of precise efforts. It happened against Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and again when facing the Red Devils.

Rogers' first goal originated from a brilliant finish, curled just inside the post from the corner of the box. For his second acted as a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents registered more shots and more efforts on goal. They have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those matches.

A statistical correction may well be the biggest rival Villa have to face over the coming weeks. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing the ball into the top corner week in, week out.

A Case for Belief

Could it be an alternative path whereby, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still find their top level.

• The main striker might resume adding to his goal tally.
• The winger may rediscover the performer he was during his peak.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually return from injury, bolstering a sometimes shaky defence.

Maybe within that lies the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.

Enjoying the Ride

However, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would sit in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt two months ago, no one envisioned the young forward by the end of the year would be spearheading a hunt for the title while looking like an essential Three Lions star.

This winning streak must be cherished precisely because it seems so surreal. As the hero faced the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.